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Cyclical economic Crisis in PON:VGN
An economic crisis can start, originating from a major power only, if there was no crisis going on for at least 3 years. In this case, the chance that a crisis starts is tied to the overall capital funds present in all major countries of the world and to the current inflation of the country under check. Said differently, a given country can be the originator of a crisis, if there is at least some inflation present, and if on average the capital funds are at least 2000 £, for each major country.
Once a country initiates a crisis, it will suffer from several adverse and debilitating effects. As the originator, it will get the brunt of the effects, losing capital (at least 1000£), gaining a lot of inflation, losing prestige, and its population will lose a lot of contentment.
One turn after the crisis appears, other countries can be in trouble too, as the crisis will spread, worldwide. The chance to get a crisis is higher if you have inflation and/or a lot of capital funds. The chances are lower if you have a high tariff rate (protectionist countries get an advantage here, as they can push their tariff to quite high level). Countries in closed economy can't suffer from the crisis (Japan at start e.g). Once a country is in crisis, it will have some chance, every turn, to have further effects on its economy. These effects include having the population become more militant, losing some capital funds, and recovering a little from inflation (this one is a positive effect).
For the crisis to stop, the originator of the crisis must stop being in crisis (as a simplification, the stop is checked first on the country who initiated the crisis). Crisis last at least 6 months in all cases, and then afterward there is a growing chance (1% cumulated per turn of crisis) that the crisis stops. Once it happens into the country of origin, others countries can check for a stop too. When the crisis stops in a given country, you'll recover a bit of capital funds and contentment. If the crisis is stopped in the country of origin, a country in which it has spread can check if the crisis ends also on its side. The chances are mostly based on crisis duration, plus a slight bonus depending of your tariff rate (i.e if you apply high tariff, you get an extra bonus to see if the crisis stops).